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Stock Markets In Election Years
On the left the figure shows the S&P 500 average annual stock market total return during non-election years, presidential elections years, and midterm election years. On the right the same figures are reported, but 2002 and 2008 are...
Read MoreTen Things To Know About The Midterm Elections
Ten Things To Know About The Midterm Election
Read MoreA>5% Bounce In May Could Be A Good Sign
Good time to remember that when the S&P 500 gains >5% in May (like 2026) the next 12 months have never been lower and gains 21% on average. Yes, June/July was a sideways chop, but things are now moving higher as expected. Ryan...
Read MoreThe Greatest Gift
His grandson is 16. Lifeguards at the community pool. Makes $4,200 a year. His grandfather wrote him a check for $4,200 last month. The kid assumed it was for his car fund. His grandfather told him no. Open a Roth IRA. Put it all in....
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July Has Been The Best Month The Past 20 Years
Name a better month for the S&P 500 than July going back 20 years. I bet you can't. Ryan Detrick, CMT on X: "Name a better month for the S&P 500 than July going back 20 years. I bet you can't. https://t.co/4iBTn427xC" / X The Standard...
Read MoreLong-Term IPO Returns Lag The Market
SpaceX gained 19.2% today. Looking at more than 9k IPOs since 1980, the average Day 1 IPO gain was 18.9%. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Ryan Detrick, CMT on X: "SpaceX gained 19.2% today. Looking at more than 9k...
Read MoreEven Years That Gain 20% Have A Bad Day
Yes, Friday saw the S&P 500 fall 2.6%, which is the worst day of the year so far. Good time to remember that even the best years have bad a day or two (or more). 22 times the S&P 500 gained more than 20% for the year and the average...
Read More8th Longest Bull Market Since WWII
This bull market just passed the 3.6 year bull market of '62-'66 for the 8th longest since WWII. What matters here is how long those other bull markets that made it this far lasted. The other seven lasted an average of more than 7...
Read MoreDay 100 Is Up Nearly 10% YTD, Bulls Are Smiling
Day 100 of 2026 and the S&P 500 is up a very impressive 9.9% YTD. 22 other times it was up >9% YTD on this day and the rest of the year was higher 86.4% of the time (19 out of 22) and up another 8.1% on average. This does little to...
Read MoreThe Seven Week Win Streak is Historic and Potentially Quite Bullish
The last three times we had a 7 week win streak for the S&P 500 that was up more than 10% saw stocks up more than 20% a year later each time. In fact, never lower a year later looking at all seven prior instances. I'd file this in the...
Read MoreExtreme Pessimism Often Preceded Double-Digit Returns For Equities
Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg, S&P Global, University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment bottoms are reflected by cycle lows for the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, which is a monthly survey-based index that...
Read MoreU.S. Equities Outshined Gold and Silver Over The Past 40 Years
U.S. equities outshined gold and silver over the past 40 years
Read MoreA Good Start To The Year= Happy Bulls
23 of the past 25 times the S&P 500 was up >5% YTD going into May saw the rest of the year higher. This is another clue this bull market likely has a few more tricks up his sleeves in 2026. Ryan Detrick, CMT on X: "23 of the past 25...
Read MoreStaying Invested: Missing The Best Days
Staying invested is a key principle of long-term financial success. This chart shows the impact of missing the best market days over the past 25 years. Staying invested through ups and downs can make a significant difference in final...
Read MoreS&P 500 Average Annualized Forward Total Returns
Wondering which month is the best time to start investing? The right answer is any month. Just start!Peter Mallouk on X: "Wondering which month is the best time to start investing? The right answer is any month. Just start! https://t...
Read MoreLooking Beyond Conflict: Viewing Volatility As Opportunity
Investors are climbing a high wall of worries in 2026. With wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, messy trade disputes in the world’s major economic regions, growing fears over the impact of artificial intelligence, and deep political...
Read MoreAnatomy of a Recession: 2Q'26 Outlook
The drag from higher oil prices should negate some but not all the fiscal stimulus from the OBBB in 2026.
Read MoreDon't Fear All-Time-Highs
One of bigger worries investors have is investing at all-time highs for the S&P 500. Should you have a fear of heights?
Read MoreAnnual Returns and Pullbacks
This chart shows the annual returns and largest intra-year decline for the S&P 500 price index. The largest intra-year decline is measured as the steepest peak-to-trough decline for the index during the calendar year.
Read MoreAOR Update: Buy the geopolitical dip?
The pinch to American wallets from higher energy costs should be smaller than historical parallels would suggest, which should help insulate the US economy better than was experienced during past oil spikes induced by geopolitical conflicts
Read MorePutting 2026 Stock Market in Perspective
Markets are never a straight ride up. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged double‑digit gains while dropping roughly 14% each year. Volatility is simply the cost of long-term reward
Read MoreDistribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns
Only 12 times in history did stocks fall more than double digits, aka the dirty dozen. Excellent look at these 12 years by @gilbert3142 of the @CarsonResearchteam. https://carsongroup...
Read MoreNine Months In A Row The Dow Is Higher
The Dow is up 9 months in a row and we are in the banana peel month of February. Yes, they might blame it on AI or something else, just know a little pause here and now is perfectly normal and probably healthy.The Dow Jones Industrial...
Read MoreRanked Selected Index Returns 12/31/2025 to 3/6/2026
Yes, the S&P 500 is down a little bit in 2026. But various other assets and sectors are higher on the year. A good reminder why staying diversified (and avoiding going all in on the hottest areas like growth) is prudent for investors...
Read MoreStocks Have Bottomed In Mid-March The Past 20 Years
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major...
Read MoreHow $100 Oil and the Middle East Conflict Affect Investors
The bottom line? While the conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices above $100 and created volatility, financial markets and the economy have historically adapted to supply shocks.
Read MoreWars and the Stock Market
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major...
Read MoreThe Sweet Spot
S&P 500 up 1.4% in January. Rest of year up 87% of the time when January is higher. But when it up between 0-2%? Lower only once. Small clues 2026 should be an above average year for investors.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500)...
Read MoreThe Carson Quilt Chart
Here's our updated and always popular@CarsonResearchQuilt Chart.
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