by Capital Group
When is the next recession?
That’s one of the questions we hear most often, especially following more than a year of aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at reining in runaway inflation. Although a recession has felt imminent for awhile, the economic picture has become muddied as industries have weakened and recovered at different times. If we do see a broad contraction over the next year, our expectation is that it will be less severe than the 2008 global financial crisis and other more typical recessions, followed by a strong recovery.
Recessions can be complicated, misunderstood and even scary. But, most of all, they’re hard to predict, as Paul Samuelson — the first American to win the Nobel Prize in Economics — wryly noted in the 1960s. So rather than predicting the exact date of the next recession, this guide will offer perspectives on the following questions:
- What factors have contributed to previous recessions?
- How have equities moved during past contractions?
- What are the most consistent economic indicators to watch?
- How close is the next recession?
- What can investors do to prepare?
| Access the Complete Recession Guide |
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